| 인천항의 장래 교통량 추정 및 조류신호의 정보가치 분석 |
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김정훈, 국승기, 김세원 |
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| Estimation on the Future Traffic Volumes and Analysis on Information Value of Tidal Current Signal in incheon |
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Jung-Hoon Kim, Seung-Gi Gug, Se-won Kim |
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| Abstract |
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This paper estimated the future traffic volume incoming and outgoing in Incheon port, and analyzed the value of information serviced by tidal current signal operation center in Incheon The cargo traffic in 2020 will increase twice as much as ín 2005 according to the national ports basis plan The maritime traffic will increase greatly consequently. Also, MOMAF has operated tidal current signal operation center to prevent marine accidents roused by current influence on vessels navigating through Incheon However the quantitative effect is not known because there is no analysis about its value. therefore the value of information serviced by tidal current signal operation center in Incheon was calculated with contingent valuation method(CVM), and the information value was analyzed considering future traffic in this study. Thus, the annual information value was calculated at about 170~280 million won, considered traffic volume using the information of tidal current directly in 2020 since 2006. |
| Key Words:
ARIMA모형;
Information value of tidal current;Volume per ship;ARIMA model;Exponential smoothing model;
Seasonal index;Contingent valuation method(CVM) |
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