An Influence Analysis of Port Hinterlands on Container Cargo Volumes of Incheon Port Using System Dynamics

Kim, Young Kuk; Jeon, Jun Woo; Yeo, Gi Tae

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2014;38(6):701-708.
Published online December 31, 2014.

시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 인천항 배후단지가 인천항 컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 영향 분석

김영국, 전준우, 여기태

An Influence Analysis of Port Hinterlands on Container Cargo Volumes of Incheon Port Using System Dynamics

Young Kuk Kim, Jun Woo Jeon, Gi Tae Yeo

Abstract

This study is aimed to obtain the influence of port hinterlands on container cargo volumes of Incheon port using System Dynamics(SD). Also, macro economic index such as exchange rates(US dollar), balance of current account, capital balance, Japan trade, China trade, export unit value index, import unit value index, total turnover of Incheon port were used as the factors that influence container cargo volumes of Incheon port. Moreover micro index regarding port hinterlands' operating companies such as total sales, rental fee, number of employees were introduced in the simulation model. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be within 10%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on cargo volume in Incheon Port, the factor named 'cargo volumes of port hinterlands' operating companies' is most significant. And increasing the rental fee of hinterland was resulted in decreasing the cargo volumes of Incheon port.

Key Words: incheon port;port hinterland;cargo volumes;system dynamics;sensitivity analysis;causal relationship