A Study on the Demand Estimation of the Crew in Domestic Coastal Shipping Industry

Park, Sung-Jin; Pai, Hoo-Seok; Shin, Yong-John

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2012;36(3):205-213.
Published online April 30, 2012.

연안해운 선원인력 수요예측에 관한 연구

박성진, 배후석, 신용준

A Study on the Demand Estimation of the Crew in Domestic Coastal Shipping Industry

Sung-Jin Park, Hoo-Seok Pai, Yong-John Shin

Abstract

This study focused on the supply-demand and training system of the crew for domestic coastal shipping. First of all, it forecasted the prospect and effect in the future of the crew supply-demand through the analysis to the current situation of crew employment and the internal and external environment changes. Next, it suggested the specific role and alternatives of government, industry and educational institutions after the comparison and examination of the sailor policies among Korea and major shipping countries. In regard to the demand of crew manpower in coastal shipping, it figured out the bottoms and the current circumstances of sailors, and it could anticipate the future demand by the gradational approach. According to the findings, firstly the result of this simulation by the changes of the ship numbers demonstrated that the demand over the next 10 years will be 7,890～8,025 in the case of the growth 0.4%, and 7,894～8,063 in 0.5%. Secondly, assuming the growth 0.1～1%, the result illustrated that the demand will come to 7,879～8,258. This means the fact that the additional manpower has to be input to 20～430 annually from now on.. To conclude, this study showed the more rational numbers about the supply-demand than the past researches and displayed the systematic approach to supply and train the crew in domestic coastal shipping.

Key Words: Coastal Shipping Industry;Crew Manpower;Demand Estimation;Regression;Estimation Model