| 해상교통공학적 고려 요소를 이용한 광양항의 장래교통량 예측에 대한 연구 |
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박영수, 김종수, 박진수 |
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| A Study on the Future Traffic Volume Estimation for Kwangyang Port Using The Consideration Factors of Marine Traffic Engineering |
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Young-Soo Park, Jong-soo Kim, Jin-soo Park |
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| Abstract |
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To assess the port development and maritime traffic environment, the future traffic volume has been estimated using the number of inbound and outbound vessel for a specific port. The estimation of future traffic volume should be considered as an important factor to establish the degree of fairway congestion, the determination of fairway width and the operational rule. Until now, the number of in and out vessel for the port has been only estimated mainly, but the type and size of inbound and outbound ships are different depending on the port's characteristics. So, it is difficult to estimate the future traffic volume using the change of only one item. This paper calculates the future traffic volume using the marine traffic characteristic factors as the number of coastal ship and ocean-going ship, the size of ship and the change of cargo volume per a ship etc. And it compared with the results of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) for accurate identification of nonlinear system. |
| Key Words:
Traffic volume estimation;Trend;port character;Artificial neural network;Marine traffic engineering |
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