Analysis of marine accident probability in Mokpo waterways

Kim, Kwang il; Park, Gye-Kark; Jeong, Jung Sik

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2011;35(9):729-733.
Published online December 31, 2011.

Analysis of marine accident probability in Mokpo waterways

Kwang il Kim, Gye-Kark Park, Jung Sik Jeong

Abstract

The maritime risk assessment is important not only to evaluate the safety level of the ports and waterways but also to reduce potential maritime accidents at sea in terms of the proactive measures of the maritime accidents. In this paper, the collision risk assessment in Mokpo waterways has been carried out based on the IALA recommended model, IWRAP. To evaluate the accident probabilities in Mokpo waterways, all data of vessels were collected from AIS and Radar observations data and the computer simulations were carried out. To assess the risk on the traffic, the scenario-base approach has been applied to the Mokpo waterway by using the maritime accident statics over the past 5 years.

Key Words: accident probability;geometrical probability;causation probability;collision risk;AIS