J Navig Port Res > Volume 48(6); 2024 > Article
Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2024;48(6):547-553.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2024.48.6.547    Published online December 31, 2024.
운송 서비스 유형별 해운업 파산예측에 관한 연구
권민수
University of Plymouth 박사
Bankruptcy Prediction Models Based on Shipping Service Types
Min-Su Kwon
PhD of Business School, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, United Kingdom
Correspondence:  Min-Su Kwon,
Email: alstn3927@naver.com
Received: 19 November 2024   • Revised: 28 November 2024   • Accepted: 2 December 2024
Abstract
This study develops bankruptcy prediction models for various types of shipping services (container, bulk, and tanker) and compares the key risk factors associated with each. By utilizing traditional statistical models alongside advanced machine learning techniques, such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, we evaluated the predictive performance of each service type. SHAP analysis was applied to visualize variable importance. The findings reveal significant differences in key risk factors by service type, highlighting the need for tailored risk management strategies for each segment. This study provides foundational insights to enhance the financial stability of the shipping industry.
Key Words: bankruptcy prediction, machine learning, shipping industry, risk factor analysis, explainable AI


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