A Study on forecasting container volume of port using SD and ARIMA

Kim, Jong-Kil; Pak, Ji-Yeong; Ying-Wang,; Park, Sung-Il; Yeo, Gi-Tae

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2011;35(4):343-349.
Published online June 15, 2011.

A Study on forecasting container volume of port using SD and ARIMA

Jong-Kil Kim, Ji-Yeong Pak, Ying-Wang, Sung-Il Park, Gi-Tae Yeo

Abstract

The forecasting of container volume which is the basis of port logistics facilities expansion has a great influence on development of an port. Based on this importance, various previous studies have presented methodology on container volume forecasting. The results of many previous studies pointed out the limitations of future forecasting based on past container volume and emphasized that more various factors should be considered to compensate this. Taking notice of this point, this study forecasted future container volume by using ARIMA model, time series analysis and System Dynamics (SD) method, a dynamic analysis technique and performed the comparative review with the forecast of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs. Recently with rapid changes in economic and social environment, the non-linear change tendency for forecasting container traffic is presented as a new alternative to the country.

Key Words: Container volume forecast;System dynamics;ARIMA analysis;Bass model;Vensim