Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2009;33(4):255-261.
Published online June 20, 2009.
Probabilistic Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach
Zhan-Jun Long, Seung-Keon Lee, Sung-Jong Lee, Jae-Hun Jeong
Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading. Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method
Key Words: risk analysis;ship stability;capsizing;safe basin;survival probability;nonlinear dynamics
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