Estimation on the Port Container Volume In Incheon Port

Kim, Jung-Hoon

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2009;33(4):277-282.
Published online June 20, 2009.

Estimation on the Port Container Volume In Incheon Port

Abstract

This paper estimated the container volumes for the Incheon port with univariate time series. As best suited models Winters' additive model, ARIMA model,and Winters' additive model were selected by import-export, coastal, and transshipment volume respectively, based on the data of monthly volume by October 2008 since January 2001. This study supposed the import-export container volumes would be decreased by 14% against that in 2008 and would have been recovered to the increasing trend cf the volumes beyond the fourth quarter of 2010. The future import-export and transshipment volumes showed the increasing trend beyond 2011, while the coastal volumes would be on the stagnation. The yearly container volumes were finally forecasted as 1,705, 2,432, and 3,341 thousand TEU in 2011, 2015, and 2020 respectively.

Key Words: Container volume;Incheon port;Imoort-exoort volume;Transshipment volume;Coastal volume; Time series model