Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2008;32(6):425-431.
Published online August 30, 2008.
시계열 모형을 이용한 광양항의 컨테이너 물동량 및 교통량 예측
김정훈
The Forecast of the Cargo Transportation and Traffic Volume on Container in Gwangyang Port, using Time Series Models
Jung-Hoon Kim
Abstract
The future cargo transportation and traffic volume on container in Gwangyang port was forecasted by using univariate time series models in this research And the container ship traffic was produced. The constructed models all were most adapted to Winters' additive models with a trend and seasonal change. The cargo transportation on container in Gwangyang port was estimated each about 2,756 thousand TEU and 4,470 thousand TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 7.4%, 16.2% compared with 2007. The volume per ship on container was estimated each about 675TEU and 801TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 30.3%, 54.6%compared with 2007. Also. traffic volume on container incoming in Gwangyang Port was prospected each about 4,078ships and 5,921ships in 2011 and 2015.
Key Words: Winters 가법 모형; Gwangyang port;Cargo transportation;Trafic volume;Volume per ship;Time series model; Winters' additive model
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