J Navig Port Res > Volume 44(6); 2020 > Article
Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2020;44(6):517-523.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2020.44.6.517    Published online December 31, 2020.
시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 평택·당진항 수입 승용차 물동량 예측에 관한 연구
이재구1, 이기환2
1한국해양대학교 대학원 박사수료
2한국해양대학교 교수
Forecasting the Volume of Imported Passenger Cars at PyeongTaek·Dangjin Port Using System Dynamics
J ae-Gu Lee1, Ki-Hwan Lee2
1Ph.D. Completion, Department of Shipping Management, Graduate School of KMOU, Busan 49112, Republic of Korea
2Professor, Division of Shipping Management, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan 49112, Republic of Korea
Correspondence:  Ki-Hwan Lee, Tel: 051)410-4387, 
Email: khlee@kmou.ac.kr
Received: 6 October 2020   • Revised: 16 October 2020   • Accepted: 26 October 2020
Abstract
Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port handles the largest volume of finished vehicles in Korea, including more than 95% of imported cars .However, since the volume of imported cars has been stagnant since 2015, officials planning to invest in port development or automobile-related industries must make new forecasts. Economic variables such as the GDP often have been used in predicting automobile volume, but prior research showed that the impact of these economic variables on automobile volume I has been gradually decreasing in developed countries. These variables remain important predictors, however, in developing countries that experience rapid economic growth .In this study, predicting the volume of imported passenger cars at Pyeongtaek· Dangjin port, the decreasing Korean population was a major factor we considered. Our forecast showed that the volume of imported passenger cars at Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port will gradually decrease -by 2021. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verification was performed to measure the accuracy of the predicted results, and the scenario analysis was performed on the share of imported passenger cars.
Key Words: imported passenger cars, forecasting, system dynamics, estimation of Korea's future population


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